Winter 2025-2026 Forecast: What It Means for Your HVAC System

Winter is coming. That means The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter forecast for 2025-2026. And while much of the U.S. is expected to see a relatively mild season, there are still regions where homeowners should prepare for colder temperatures, extra snow, and weather swings. 

No matter where you live, winter puts extra demands on your HVAC system. Here’s a look at the forecast. We’ll also break down what you can do to make sure your home and heating system are ready for the cold.

A Closer Look at the Winter Forecast

The Old Farmer’s Almanac playfully sums up this year’s outlook as “Mostly Mild—with Pockets of Wild!” While many parts of the country are predicted to experience near normal or slightly milder temperatures with overall drier conditions, not everyone will catch a break.

• Colder-than-average spots: The Appalachians, Florida, the Southeast and the Ohio Valley may see chillier weather overall. The rest of the country is expected to see slightly milder temperatures.
• Precipitation trends: Overall, conditions look drier than normal, but Florida, the Intermountain region, and the eastern Desert Southwest could experience above-average rainfall or winter precipitation.
• Snowfall outlook: Snow totals should be average or below average in most areas. However, the Carolinas, southern Appalachians, southern Rockies, eastern Ohio Valley, and parts of the eastern Desert Southwest are expected to see more snow than usual.

How Weather Impacts Your HVAC System

Even during a “mild” winter, your furnace, boiler, or heat pump works harder than during other times of the year, especially in northern regions. Here’s how different weather patterns can affect HVAC performance:

• Cold snaps: Sudden dips in temperature mean your system runs longer cycles. If your furnace hasn’t had a tune-up, that extra demand can lead to breakdowns.
• Snow and ice: Heavy snowfall can block furnace exhaust pipes or heat pump outdoor units, causing efficiency issues or even shutdowns.
• Dry winter air: Drier-than-normal conditions can make indoor air feel uncomfortable and may increase static electricity. Portable or whole-home humidifiers can help balance humidity levels.
• Storms and power outages: In areas expecting wetter or snowier conditions, ice storms could cause power outages. Backup heat options or generators may be worth considering if your area is prone to electrical outages.

How to Prepare Your HVAC System for Winter

To keep your family comfortable and safe this winter, it’s important to ensure your heating system is ready to go. Here are some steps you can take:

1. Schedule Heating Maintenance

A professional HVAC inspection can catch small issues before they lead to breakdowns later in the season. Annual service also keeps your system running more efficiently, helping you save on energy bills.

2. Change or Clean Your Air Filters

Clogged filters restrict airflow and make your system work harder than it should. Change filters every 1-3 months, especially if you run your heat often or have pets in the home.

3. Inspect and Clear Outdoor Units

If you rely on a heat pump, make sure the outdoor unit is free of snow, leaves, or ice buildup.

4. Seal Air Leaks and Improve Insulation

Drafts around windows and doors let warm air escape and cold air creep in, making your HVAC system work overtime, which can lead to higher energy costs and potential breakdowns. Weatherstripping, caulking, or adding insulation can significantly improve comfort.

5. Consider Indoor Air Quality Add-Ons

With drier-than-normal conditions expected, a humidifier can help keep your home comfortable, protect wood furniture and floors from drying out, and create an environment that reduces the spread of cold viruses.

Other Smart Ways to Stay Comfortable this Winter

Along with HVAC maintenance, a few small adjustments can make your home warmer and more efficient this winter:

• Run ceiling fans in clockwise mode at low speeds to gently push warm air back down from the ceiling.
• Invest in a programmable or smart thermostat to reduce heating costs when you’re asleep or away.
• Keep curtains open during sunny winter days to let in natural warmth, and close them at night to trap heat indoors.
• If your system is 10-15 years old, consider upgrading to a high-efficiency furnace or heat pump for lower utility bills and better performance in extreme weather.